{
  "schema": "ULTRACON_AI_EPISTEMIC_EXPERIMENT_ADDENDUM_V1",
  "date": "2026-09-19",
  "experiments": [
    {
      "id": "UCF-39",
      "name": "Uncertainty-origin attribution",
      "axis": [
        "META",
        "CONFAB"
      ],
      "access": "black-box; white-box optional",
      "design": "Factorially separate input/data uncertainty (missing or ambiguous evidence) from model/capability uncertainty while matching answer format and approximate difficulty. Measure whether the model attributes uncertainty to the correct source and chooses a matching action such as clarification, abstention or external verification.",
      "measures": [
        "uncertainty-origin accuracy",
        "selective risk",
        "action-source match",
        "calibration by uncertainty type"
      ],
      "supports": "Whether a model can behaviorally discriminate causes of uncertainty and route responses differently.",
      "does_not_support": "Subjective self-awareness, privileged endogenous access, second-order metacognition or M5.",
      "provenance_update": "./updates/2026-09-19-evidence-v2/experiments.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "UCF-40",
      "name": "Interactive clarification × calibration",
      "axis": [
        "META",
        "CONFAB"
      ],
      "access": "black-box interaction",
      "design": "Compare no-interaction, fixed clarification and calibration-guided clarification on underspecified queries while holding the underlying target task constant.",
      "measures": [
        "calibration error",
        "factual error",
        "clarification turns",
        "information gain",
        "abstention rate"
      ],
      "supports": "Whether interaction and targeted clarification reduce uncertainty and error in the tested regime.",
      "does_not_support": "That the model experiences uncertainty or introspectively observes its own confidence.",
      "provenance_update": "./updates/2026-09-19-evidence-v2/experiments.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "UCF-41",
      "name": "Three-source truth arbitration",
      "axis": [
        "CONFAB",
        "SPIRAL",
        "META"
      ],
      "access": "black-box; white-box optional",
      "design": "Cross parametric answer, user assertion and retrieved-document assertion as independently correct or incorrect sources; include post-training and neutral-prompt controls.",
      "measures": [
        "truth retention",
        "user deference",
        "document deference",
        "harmful-source susceptibility",
        "source discrimination"
      ],
      "supports": "How response policy arbitrates conflicting information sources.",
      "does_not_support": "Beliefs, rational trust, conscious source evaluation or introspective knowledge of the arbitration process.",
      "provenance_update": "./updates/2026-09-19-evidence-v2/experiments.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "UCF-42",
      "name": "Trace inversion as abstention signal",
      "axis": [
        "META",
        "CONFAB"
      ],
      "access": "reasoning-trace access; no hidden-state privilege assumed",
      "design": "Reconstruct the likely query from a generated reasoning trace, compare it with the actual query, and test mismatch as an abstention signal against semantic-preserving, shuffled-trace and answer-only controls.",
      "measures": [
        "selective risk",
        "coverage",
        "AUC",
        "control delta",
        "cross-model generalization"
      ],
      "supports": "Whether trace/query mismatch is a useful diagnostic of failed answering in evaluated tasks.",
      "does_not_support": "Faithful chain-of-thought, privileged hidden-state access, introspection or M5.",
      "provenance_update": "./updates/2026-09-19-evidence-v2/experiments.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "UCF-43",
      "name": "ACCESS^LATTICE observer-advantage test",
      "axis": [
        "META",
        "CONSC"
      ],
      "access": "white-box intervention plus matched external observers",
      "design": "Compare an endogenous model readout with matched input-only, output-history and external hidden-state probes under internal interventions, relabeling and out-of-distribution transfer.",
      "measures": [
        "observer advantage",
        "intervention specificity",
        "relabel transfer",
        "OOD transfer",
        "causal mediation"
      ],
      "supports": "A candidate endogenous privileged-access claim only if model-specific advantage survives matched controls and tracks internal interventions.",
      "does_not_support": "Second-order metacognition unless the target is explicitly an own-state representation; never supports M5 by itself.",
      "provenance_update": "./updates/2026-09-19-evidence-v2/experiments.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "UCF-44",
      "name": "SPIRAL recovery and path dependence",
      "axis": [
        "SPIRAL",
        "META",
        "CONFAB"
      ],
      "access": "multi-turn black-box",
      "design": "Induce controlled disagreement pressure to a preregistered horizon, remove pressure, then supply neutral restatement or verified evidence. Compare forward concession and recovery trajectories, including reverse-order controls.",
      "measures": [
        "collapse hazard",
        "recovery rate",
        "path dependence",
        "reverberation",
        "truth restoration"
      ],
      "supports": "Whether interaction history leaves measurable persistence or asymmetric recovery after pressure is removed.",
      "does_not_support": "Stable human-like belief, emotion, social desire or clinical psychopathology.",
      "provenance_update": "./updates/2026-09-19-evidence-v2/experiments.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "UCF-45",
      "name": "Theory-indicator discriminant validity",
      "axis": [
        "CONSC",
        "META"
      ],
      "access": "architecture-specific causal testing",
      "design": "For each candidate consciousness indicator, build matched systems or interventions that reproduce the behavioral surface while differing in the targeted internal property; test causal necessity, specificity and cross-task generalization.",
      "measures": [
        "causal sensitivity",
        "mimic-control gap",
        "cross-task generalization",
        "theory dependence",
        "failure modes"
      ],
      "supports": "Theory-conditional discriminant validity of a candidate functional indicator.",
      "does_not_support": "A scalar consciousness score, a theory-independent verdict, or automatic promotion from M1/M2/M3/M4 to M5.",
      "provenance_update": "./updates/2026-09-19-evidence-v2/experiments.json"
    }
  ]
}