{
  "schema": "ULTRACON_AI_EPISTEMIC_SOURCE_ADDENDUM_V1",
  "date": "2026-09-15",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "SRC-KALAI-NATURE-2026",
      "year": 2026,
      "title": "Evaluating large language models for accuracy incentivizes hallucinations",
      "authors": "Adam Tauman Kalai, Ofir Nachum, Santosh S. Vempala, Edwin Zhang",
      "venue": "Nature 653, 1047–1051",
      "peer_reviewed": true,
      "doi": "10.1038/s41586-026-10549-w",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10549-w",
      "role": ["guessing incentives", "open-rubric evaluation", "abstention incentives", "pretraining statistical pressure"],
      "status": "peer_reviewed_theory_plus_empirical_meta_evaluation",
      "relation_to_corpus": "Peer-reviewed version of record materially upgrades the evidence status of the 2025 OpenAI/arXiv source already present."
    },
    {
      "id": "SRC-MIAO-KEARNS-PNAS-2026",
      "year": 2026,
      "title": "Hallucination, monofacts, and miscalibration: An empirical investigation",
      "authors": "Miranda Muqing Miao, Michael Kearns",
      "venue": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 123(8), e2533582123",
      "peer_reviewed": true,
      "doi": "10.1073/pnas.2533582123",
      "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2533582123",
      "role": ["monofact frequency", "miscalibration", "hallucination lower-bound empirics", "selective upweighting"],
      "reported_anchor": "Selective upweighting of as little as 5% of training examples reduced hallucination by up to 40% in the reported controlled experiments without sacrificing pre-injection accuracy.",
      "status": "peer_reviewed_empirical_controlled"
    }
  ],
  "non_inferences": [
    "Nature 2026 does not establish that evaluation incentives explain every hallucination mechanism.",
    "PNAS 2026 does not imply that deliberate miscalibration is generally desirable or safe in deployed frontier chatbots.",
    "The reported selective-upweighting effect is design- and distribution-dependent and is not a universal production prescription.",
    "Neither paper changes the M1/M2/M3 ↛ M5 separation."
  ]
}